Mitt Romney is quickly shaping up to be the front-runner of the Republican 2012 contenders.
However, Mr. Romney has a number of serious problems that have to do with the core of the Republican party.

Republican Party Issues:
1.) Core evangelical base
2.) Pro-business donor base
3.) Conservatism that emphasizes a strong U.S. military.

Obviously Romney’s private equity background appeals to the pro-business donor base; however, Romney lacks George W. Bush’s appeal to the real grass roots muscle of the Republican Party, the evangelical Christian core base. John McCain was able to tap the Evangelical base using Sarah Palin, and benefited from going up against a non-incumbent Democratic Party nominee for President — one that could also be painted as an outsider to “real America.”

Romeny lacks McCain’s military background, military foreign policy experience and also needs to shore up his support among evangelicals through either policy or some other method. McCain was able to overcome the evangelical issues by adding Sarah Palin. Since Romeny has two issues to deal with he is going to have a much more difficult time covering his problems.

WSJ.com has a great article by Peter A. Brown, that actually articulates a position I have had for a while on Sarah Palin, Jesse Jackson and other strong ideological figures within political parties that appeal to a strong demographic group within a party.

Here’s a key except from Peter Brown’s piece:

Simply put, the two emerged as political and media celebrities backed by exceptionally strong support within the most ideological wing of their respective political parties. But both also carry substantial political baggage with the much larger numbers of American voters who decide November elections.

That profile made the idea that Mr. Jackson had a serious chance to win the presidency unrealistic. Ms. Palin’s poll ratings are actually lower than Mr. Jackson’s were then. And doubts about her ability to broaden her support past the true-believers, as numerous as they may be, raise the same questions about her chances in 2012. WSJ.com

Although Brown makes some key assumptions where he essentially panders to Palin supporters — claiming that Palin’s base within the Republican party today is stronger than Jackson’s 22 years ago… with no proof what so ever. While he compares actual data on Jesse Jackson’s run’s for president, he can only speculate on Sarah Palin’s strength on an independent run for POTUS — Sarah Palin has not run, as a result all data from voters is highly speculative.  Palin could defy all odds and gain significant support, or she could continue her downward spiral since being introduced by John McCain.

Right now, until Palin announces and faces real Republican criticism, there really are not good numbers to use as direct comparisons.  Beyond that, it is hard to insure that the polls themselves are asking the question in a fair manner for either candidate.